A brand-new Emerson poll just dropped showing that two Republicans — TWO — are leading the race to become the next governor of California. Republican Steve Hilton is sitting at 17 percent, followed by fellow Republican Chad Bianco at 14 percent. Democrats Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra are tied at 14 percent each, looking up at the GOP like they just got pantsed at their own pool party.
The state that gave us Gavin Newsom might give us a Republican governor. If that’s not a sign of the apocalypse for Democrats, nothing is.
Let’s just marinate in that for a second. California. The bluest state in America. The place where progressive politicians go to live out their wildest fantasies of banning gas stoves, mandating pronouns, and turning every city into a tent encampment. THAT California now has Republicans holding the top two spots in the governor’s race.
Unbelievable. And yet, here we are.
The combined Republican support in this poll hits 31 percent. In California. Where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly a million to one. (Okay, not literally, but it sure feels that way when you drive through San Francisco.)
So what happened? Well, for starters, Eric Swalwell happened.
Swalwell — who was supposed to be one of the Democratic Party’s rising stars in the state — just resigned from Congress after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. His gubernatorial campaign, which was already struggling to gain traction because nobody outside his district actually liked the guy, collapsed overnight like a soufflé in an earthquake.
That’s one less Democrat splitting the vote. And his supporters didn’t exactly flock to Tom Steyer or Xavier Becerra. Some of them are probably still in therapy.
(Can you blame them? Imagine donating to Swalwell’s campaign and then finding out what he was allegedly doing behind closed doors. You’d want a refund AND a shower.)
But Swalwell’s implosion is only part of the story. The bigger picture is that California voters are fed up. They’re tired of stepping over needles on the sidewalk. They’re tired of watching their car get broken into while the cops shrug and hand them a pamphlet. They’re tired of paying the highest taxes in the country and getting the worst services in return.
Turns out when you let your state burn down, empty the prisons, and turn every major city into an open-air drug market, people start looking for alternatives. Shocking, right?
Steve Hilton, the frontrunner, is a former Fox News host who immigrated from Britain and built a career talking about exactly these kinds of failures. He’s sharp, he’s polished, and he can articulate what’s wrong with California without sounding like he’s reading from a focus group report. That’s a dangerous combination for Democrats.
Chad Bianco is the sheriff of Riverside County who made national headlines by refusing to enforce Newsom’s COVID lockdown orders. The guy literally told the governor of California to pound sand during the pandemic. Republican voters love that kind of thing, and apparently so do a growing number of Californians who are sick of being told what to do by Sacramento.
Pop quiz: when was the last time a Republican won the governor’s mansion in California? That would be Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. Twenty years ago. Two decades of unbroken Democratic control that turned the Golden State into the Tarnished State.
Maybe it’s time for a change. The voters seem to think so.
Now, we should pump the brakes just slightly here. California’s jungle primary system means the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. If Hilton AND Bianco both make it through, that’s two Republicans in the final round. If only one makes it and faces a Democrat, the math gets harder — all those Democratic voters consolidate behind one candidate.
But the fact that we’re even having this conversation about California tells you everything you need to know about where the Democratic Party is right now. Their bench is empty. Their stars keep flaming out in scandal. Their policies have turned paradise into a punchline.
Tom Steyer — a billionaire climate activist who already failed spectacularly in the 2020 presidential primary — is their best hope. A guy who spent $300 million of his own money running for president and got zero delegates. That’s the cavalry.
Xavier Becerra was Biden’s HHS Secretary, which is basically a participation trophy at this point. “I served in the most unpopular administration in modern history” isn’t exactly a winning campaign slogan.
Meanwhile, the two Republicans at the top of the poll are actual fighters with actual followings who are actually saying what California voters want to hear.
We’re not calling this race yet. It’s early, and California has a way of disappointing conservatives right when things start looking good. But for the first time in twenty years, Republicans aren’t just competing in this state — they’re winning.
And somewhere, Gavin Newsom is looking at these numbers and realizing that his legacy isn’t a launching pad. It’s an anchor.