It used to be widely known by everyone that when an incumbent president runs for reelection, the opposing party simply runs a placeholder — a sacrificial lamb — because they know they’re going to lose. This explains the candidacies of people like Bob Dole, John Kerry and Mitt Romney in recent years.
The only time in the last century when an incumbent has lost their reelection bid was in 1992. That was the year that third-party candidate Ross Perot ran and pulled almost 20 million votes. Perot’s independent run allowed Bill Clinton to win the presidency with just 43% of the popular vote — the lowest margin in more than 120 years.
Yet in 2020, every major national poll has Joe Biden somehow trouncing a powerful and popular incumbent like Donald Trump? The aggregate of all of the national polls right now shows Biden up by 9.2 points over Trump.
Should we just give up and avoid voting on Election Day? Of course not. The polls said the same thing about Hillary Clinton four years ago (only she was up 16 points in the aggregate at this time).
One political scientist accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, and he’s back this year with another bombshell prediction that goes against all the polling. Professor Helmut Norpoth teaches at Stony Brook University and the “Norpoth Model” of predicting presidential elections is obviously named after him.
Check out this video to learn Professor Norpoth’s prediction for the 2020 election — and yes, once again, his prediction runs against the grain of all of the national polls…