Fox Business News learned from famous bookie Lee Price of Paddy Power, a betting agency, that while polling agencies have had to rethink their process since President Trump’s surprise win in 2016, there are some solid betting numbers available on the likelihood of his reelection.
Politico did a detailed study last April of what didn’t work in 2016 and how polling practices must change for 2020.
Professional pollsters agree that telephone polling, a staple for measuring public opinion for decades, are in as veteran pollster Scott Keeter said, in “wheezing condition.”
Steven Shepard of Politico observed, “Fewer Americans than ever are willing to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters, sending costs skyrocketing to roughly double what they were four years ago. Despite enjoying a largely successful 2018 election, pollsters are furiously experimenting to fill the void left by the slow failure of the telephone poll, looking at everything from internet-based solutions to snail mail.”
But for now, there doesn’t seem to be a consistently reliable replacement for telephone polling.
The Democratic firm Global Strategy Group has made great advances reaching voters through text messages that direct potential voters to a web survey about ballot measures.
Despite its advances, the polling industry still relies on randomly dialing phone numbers. A method that proved far too unreliable in 2016.
Watch the video to learn what some of the more obscure betting lines that Paddy Power says exist for President Trump.
