Polls are a fickle mistress at best. Before anyone goes betting their life savings on the latest political polls, it’s important to understand why they’re so unreliable. Under the best of circumstances, it’s difficult to get an accurate count of how masses of people really feel about things. Americans are not one dimensional, and they’re often prone to changing their minds.
That alone has caused a lot of polls to be wrong when trying to predict elections. In 2016, it went way worse. The polls were further skewed by the rhetoric surrounding that election. The mainstream media did a good job of scaring conservatives into hiding. A lot of people who were polled weren’t ready to admit that they were going to support Donald Trump.
Today, we’ve largely declawed the mainstream media. While they’re still pushing their stupid narratives, most conservatives are comfortable being honest about their positions. Despite that, the polls are still struggling. The reason is that the pollsters themselves have become politicized. There’s a lot more money in picking sides than honest research (see: climate change).
Still, there are people who remain dedicated to their craft, and not all polls are pandering. Some of the polls and models in this video are quite promising. We still can’t be sure what will happen until the day comes, but it’s always nice to see apolitical analysis. Take a look.
